Global Security Risks – Evaluating probabilities and managing potential negative outcomes

The global financial crisis has highlighted just how vulnerable each nation is to the actions of the other nations we share this planet with. But, it is increasingly obvious that global finances are now just the tip of a fragile iceberg. The Future’s Project co-founder, Fergus Neilson, explores the other global security risks that should keep us awake at night.

A recent publication by the (Davos) World Economic Forum (WEF) highlighted the fragile state of the world and its vulnerability to new shocks, specifically because of the continuing weaknesses generated by increasing economic disparity between nations and individuals, and the evident failures of global governance.

These fundamental global risks are seen to be further complicated by financial volatility, the growing and malign influence of the ‘illegal economy’, and the potential for conflict arising from food-water-energy shortages.

In addition, the WEF publication highlighted five risks to watch: a) cyber-security, b) population challenges, c) resources security, d) heightened nationalism and retreat from globalisation, and e) weapons of mass destruction.

This look at setting a new direction for security enhancement has adopted, as the basis for discussion, the generic issue of ‘reducing the potential negative impacts of five identified but highly unpredictable global risks ’, with five possible scenarios delivered as the stimulants for response.

Open Forum members are asked to consider impact probability for each – how soon and how drastic within the next ten year – and to recommend actions in the present which will reduce the probability of occurrence, and minimise expected negative impacts should the identified risk actually eventuate on a national or global scale.

1. Cyber security – There seems to be a growing vulnerability in the ‘hard’ world to cyber attack from the ‘virtual’ world. Four cyber threats exist: a) cyber theft, b) cyber espionage, c) cyber warfare, and d) cyber terrorism. In addition there is always the risk of inadvertent system failure and the resultant wide spread system-to-system ‘infection’. Key issue – Will risks grow with system extension and inter-connectivity?

2. Population challenges – It isn’t just that the world population has increased from 1.5bn to over 6.5bn in barely 110 years. It is that uneven growth has delivered regional imbalances, the ‘greying’ of most developed nations, and the youth quake in many developing nations. Each one poses quite different risks. Dealing with any one of these issues can elicit extremely emotive responses. Key issue – How to tame the 800 pound gorilla?

3. Resources security – It is relatively safe to assume that the demand for natural resources will increase in the medium term because of population growth and the projected increase of consumption by individuals. But, there is little agreement on whether supply can match demand without significant environmental or social damage. Key issue – Can the world meet the expectations of a growing and assertive middle class?

4. Retreat from globalisation – Since early in the 19th century the world has seen global leadership from a single nation. First the UK and then the USA. It is now clear that more and more nations have the power and the confidence to set their own agendas and, when in difficulty, impose the same protective barriers that triggered the Great Depression. Key issue – Is the world willing to stay united and work together to resolve issues?

5. Weapons of mass destruction – There are two sources of CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or ‘dirty bomb’, and nuclear) risk – terrorist or geopolitical attack. Can the risk of either be reduced by treaty? Or are we on the cusp of a new arms race? Are rogue nations prepared to step over the brink? Or is the world at greater risk simply by the proliferation of small (or mid- caliber) arms at the core of the weapons trade? Key issue – Do the major nations have the appetite to act as global policemen?

Open Forum member feedback

Your comments on these four near future scenarios and suggestions for action now will be used to refine The Future Project’s proposed ‘issue & scenarios posting’ on the future of communications. With that posting to access a wider spectrum of social networks, and reach a global audience for the aggregation of crowd wisdom into public debate of, and policy action on, this crucial issue.

The Futures Project

The Futures Project is focused on a single ambition: directing the wisdom of crowds at encouraging government and business clients to shift their emphasis from hindsight and daily ‘fire fighting’ to the application of insight and foresight in preparing society now for better outcomes in the near future.
 
Fergus Neilson is Co-Founder of The Futures Project. Fergus brings a wide range of business and life skills gathered from a career in the armed forces, investment banking, the United Nations, McKinsey & Company and private equity investment. Always sceptical of solutions imposed ‘top-down’ and increasingly frustrated by the default position that invariably sees cleaning equipment bought in only after the proverbial has hit the fan. Fergus can be contacted at Fergus.Neilson@dif.com.au